I. Why Cobalt Is Worth Studying Now

Among the critical metals that underpin the new-energy supply chain, cobalt occupies a peculiar position. Unlike lithium — which can form independent ore bodies and has attracted sustained investor attention — or nickel, which enjoys a large base demand floor from stainless steel, cobalt exists almost entirely as a byproduct of copper and nickel mining. Its production rhythm is driven by the capital-expenditure decisions of copper and nickel miners, not by the cobalt price itself. This "passive increment" supply structure, combined with a rapid shift in cathode chemistry across new-energy vehicle batteries, has made cobalt one of the most difficult commodities to price over recent years.

In early 2022, cobalt prices surged to approximately $82,000 per tonne, as markets widely anticipated sustained demand growth from ternary (NMC/NCA) battery expansion. By early 2025, the European cobalt metal price had fallen to around $10.25 per pound — a seven-year low, representing a decline of more than 74% from the peak. The rise and fall of this cycle reflects the deep-seated tension between a concentrated, politically complex supply base and a demand side undergoing a rapid technology-route bifurcation.

The Tianxia Gongchang Industrial Research Institute chooses this moment to systematically review the cobalt industry precisely because that tension has not resolved — but its internal structure is quietly reorganizing. This report makes no investment recommendations. It does one thing: use publicly available information to map cobalt's supply structure, demand trajectory, industrial-chain positioning, and key players as clearly as possible, while honestly acknowledging what remains uncertain.

II. Supply Structure: Highly Concentrated, Incrementally Passive

The DRC's Dominant Position

Cobalt resources are distributed with extreme geographic inequality. According to the USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025, world cobalt reserves total approximately 11 million metric tons, of which roughly 6 million metric tons — more than half — are located in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). In 2023, the DRC accounted for approximately 74% of global cobalt mine production; by 2024, that share had risen to an estimated 76%.

DRC cobalt is predominantly found in copper-cobalt sediment-hosted deposits in the Copper Belt region, with relatively high ore grades and among the lowest production costs globally. Because cobalt is a byproduct of copper mining, DRC miners typically maintain or increase output as long as copper prices support their economics — cobalt price signals have almost no regulatory effect on supply. CMOC Group's TFM and KFM copper-cobalt projects in the DRC are among the most significant sources of recent global supply additions. According to CMOC's annual results announcement, the company's cobalt output reached approximately 114,165 tonnes in 2024, more than doubling year-on-year, lifting its global market share from roughly 24% in 2023 to approximately 41% in 2024 — surpassing Glencore to become the world's largest cobalt producer by mine output.

Indonesia's Emerging Role

Indonesia's rise is the other defining supply-side development of recent years. Indonesia holds vast laterite nickel deposits that contain byproduct cobalt. As high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) hydrometallurgical technology has been deployed at scale in Indonesia, production of nickel-cobalt mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) has risen sharply. Industry data indicate that Indonesia's mined cobalt output grew from approximately 9,200 tonnes in 2022 to roughly 17,000 tonnes in 2023, with further growth to an estimated 30,000-plus tonnes in 2024 — raising Indonesia's share of global supply from a low single-digit percentage toward approximately 13%. Chinese enterprises including Huayou Cobalt and Lygend Resources are the primary operators of these Indonesian HPAL projects.

Indonesian cobalt differs from DRC cobalt in chemical form and processing pathway, but its supply elasticity is similarly low. The primary product of these facilities is nickel; cobalt remains a co-product. As long as nickel demand keeps the projects running, cobalt flows.

China's Central Position in Refining

Cobalt refining is highly concentrated in China. According to data from the Cobalt Institute's 2024 Market Report, global refined cobalt production reached approximately 222,000 tonnes in 2024, with Chinese output at roughly 131,000 tonnes — representing approximately 79% of global refining capacity. Africa's weak infrastructure and limited downstream industry mean that large volumes of semi-refined intermediate products (cobalt hydroxide, mixed hydroxide precipitate, and others) are shipped to China for further processing, then re-exported as cobalt sulfate, cobalt chloride, cobalt oxide, and related chemical forms for the battery supply chain. This arrangement makes China simultaneously the world's largest cobalt importer, refiner, and consumer.

III. Demand Structure: Battery-Dominated but Internally Fragmented

Three Major Demand Segments

The battery sector is the overwhelming driver of cobalt consumption. According to the Cobalt Institute's 2023 Market Report, battery applications collectively consume approximately 75% of global cobalt, divided among EV (power) batteries at roughly 40%, consumer batteries at approximately 30%, and energy storage batteries at a rising share. Non-battery end uses — primarily superalloys, hard alloys, catalysts, and pigments — account for roughly 25% of demand and exhibit relative stability.

Within non-battery applications, superalloys represent the most noteworthy growth segment. Cobalt-based superalloys are indispensable for aircraft engine turbine blades, gas-turbine hot-section components, and defense applications. No viable material substitution exists at comparable performance levels. As global aviation recovers and defense budgets expand, this demand segment provides a degree of underlying support for cobalt.

The LFP Substitution Pressure

The bifurcation of cathode chemistry in EV batteries is the critical variable for understanding cobalt's medium-term demand trajectory. Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries contain no cobalt. They offer comparative advantages in safety, cycle life, and cost, and have accelerated their penetration of the mid-to-low-end pure EV segment and stationary energy storage. According to the International Energy Agency's Global EV Outlook 2023 and related analysis, LFP's share of global EV battery installations exceeded that of ternary chemistries (NMC/NCA) in 2023, reaching approximately 40-50% of total deployments — and substantially higher in the Chinese market.

Ternary systems (NMC/NCA) contain cobalt and offer higher energy density, retaining advantages in premium vehicle models, long-range applications, and Western markets. However, cobalt loadings per unit of battery capacity have been declining continuously as formulations evolve from NCM 523 to NCM 622 to NCM 811. Even as ternary battery installation volumes grow, their per-unit cobalt demand is diminishing — a structural headwind for cobalt demand growth.

Consumer electronics (smartphones, laptops, power tools) rely primarily on lithium cobalt oxide (LCO) cathodes and represent a relatively stable demand base. Smartphone shipments have entered a replacement-cycle rather than incremental-growth phase. Emerging categories including consumer drones and smart wearables provide marginal supplemental demand, but volumes remain limited in scale.

IV. Price Cycle: Structural Oversupply, Policy Intervention at the Bottom

The Structural Logic of the Price Decline

From 2022 to 2024, cobalt prices underwent a steep decline. On the supply side, DRC cobalt output grew from approximately 144,000 tonnes in 2022 to roughly 170,000 tonnes in 2023, driven by CMOC's DRC project ramp-up and new Indonesian MHP capacity commissioning. On the demand side, actual EV sales growth fell short of earlier forecasts, and China's rapid LFP penetration compressed the elasticity of cobalt demand from ternary batteries.

The result was a sustained and widening surplus. According to the Cobalt Institute, the global cobalt market registered a surplus of approximately 10,700 tonnes in 2022 and approximately 18,300 tonnes in 2023. The European cobalt metal price fell from a peak of approximately $39.53 per pound in March 2022 to approximately $10.25 per pound on February 21, 2025 — the lowest level since 2016.

The DRC's Policy Intervention

Faced with persistently depressed prices, the DRC government announced a suspension of cobalt ore and intermediate-product exports in February 2025, initially for approximately four months. The ban was subsequently extended to October 2025 and then transitioned to a quota system, capping monthly exports at approximately 8,050 metric tonnes — representing a roughly 48% reduction compared to 2024 export levels. This was the DRC's first direct use of sovereign policy to constrain cobalt supply, motivated by the aim of supporting prices and securing a larger share of resource rents.

Following the policy announcement, international cobalt prices staged a meaningful recovery, with European spot prices rising to around $17.50 per pound in mid-March 2025. The durability of this recovery will depend on the rigor of quota enforcement and the pace at which accumulated inventories are absorbed. Chinese refiners and battery producers had built up stock positions during the preceding low-price period, providing some buffer against short-term supply tightening.

V. Industrial Chain Structure: Smelting as the Competitive Focal Point

From ore to battery, cobalt passes through four principal processing stages: mining, intermediate-product smelting (producing cobalt hydroxide or crude cobalt), refining (producing cobalt sulfate, cobalt chloride, cobalt tetroxide, and related forms), and precursor plus cathode material manufacturing. Chinese enterprises dominate the mid-to-downstream stages and are extending upstream through resource investments in the DRC and Indonesia — progressively constructing vertically integrated chains from mine through cathode material.

The refining and smelting stage is the current focal point of competitive positioning. Cobalt sulfate and cobalt chloride are the direct raw materials for ternary precursor and lithium cobalt oxide production. Cobalt tetroxide is the precursor for LCO cathodes. China's domestic nickel-cobalt smelters process both DRC cobalt hydroxide intermediates and Indonesian MHP, outputting high-purity cobalt salts for the battery supply chain. This is the most volume-intensive processing stage in the entire chain and the one most directly exposed to cobalt price swings.

Key enterprise positions:

  • CMOC Group (洛阳钼业): World's largest cobalt miner by output. Core assets are the TFM and KFM copper-cobalt mines in the DRC. Cobalt output in 2024 was approximately 114,165 tonnes. Extending downstream into cobalt chemical products.

  • Huayou Cobalt (华友钴业): One of China's largest cobalt salt producers. Operates both DRC copper-cobalt mining assets and Indonesian HPAL nickel-cobalt projects; extends downstream into precursor materials and cathode materials. Reported revenues exceeding RMB 63 billion in 2022, with business spanning resources, smelting, and new materials.

  • Glencore: World's second-largest cobalt miner. Core asset is the Katanga mining operation in the DRC. Own-sourced cobalt production in 2024 was approximately 38,200 tonnes. Also operates one of the world's leading metals-trading networks.

  • Hanrui Cobalt, GEM (格林美): China's second-tier smelting and recycling enterprises. Positioned in secondary cobalt recovery from spent batteries. Global secondary cobalt supply reached approximately 11,500 tonnes in 2023, representing roughly 5.2% of total cobalt supply.

Tianxia Gongchang maintains a database covering a broad range of domestic nickel-cobalt smelting factories, including business scope, contact details, and operational profiles. For suppliers or procurement teams in the cobalt refining and cobalt-salt segment looking to reach factory-level buyers at scale, Tianxia Gongchang provides a targeted directory of nickel-cobalt smelting operations — turning client prospecting from cold outreach into systematic, data-driven coverage.

VI. Risks and the Research Institute's Assessment

Pulling these threads together, the cobalt market's current difficulties have clear structural origins: supply driven by the passive byproduct logic of copper and nickel miners, demand growth muted by LFP substitution compressing cobalt intensity in ternary batteries. Both forces operated simultaneously from 2022 to 2025, pushing prices to cycle lows. The DRC's export controls represent a policy intervention that alters the short-term supply rhythm but does not change the underlying resource endowment.

Looking ahead, several key variables warrant ongoing attention:

  • The penetration trajectory of ternary batteries in premium European and North American vehicle segments will determine whether cobalt-containing cathodes can sustain absolute volume growth in the face of LFP's cost advantages.
  • The effective enforcement of DRC export quotas, alongside the commissioning timeline of new Indonesian MHP capacity, will jointly define the actual pace of supply-side release.
  • The commercialization path for all-solid-state batteries — which favor higher-nickel, higher-cobalt cathode formulations — could introduce new demand support for cobalt if the technology achieves scale earlier than expected.
  • The scaling of spent-battery recycling creates an independent cobalt supply channel, which will gradually dilute the pricing power of primary mining over the medium term.

The Cobalt Institute projects global cobalt demand to grow at a compound annual rate of approximately 7%, reaching around 400,000 tonnes in the early 2030s, at which point a supply deficit may re-emerge and prices could recover to incentivize new investment. These projections carry significant embedded assumptions; the specific realization path depends on the variables described above and should not be treated as a basis for investment decisions.

The Tianxia Gongchang Industrial Research Institute's assessment is this: cobalt's core contradiction is not a short-term price fluctuation but a deeper structural mismatch — between cobalt's identity as a "passive byproduct" of copper and nickel production, and its role as a "strategic battery metal" in new-energy supply chains. As long as the expansion logic of copper and nickel mines remains intact, cobalt supply will resist effective price-signal discipline. And as long as LFP retains its cost and cycle-life advantages, ternary chemistry's demand pull on cobalt will face structural compression. Neither force will dissipate quickly. Yet smelting and refining enterprises that can expand market share at the price floor — building cost leadership through scale during the down-cycle — are quietly strengthening their competitive position in ways that merit long-term attention.

Data Sources

  • Tianxia Gongchang (Nickel-cobalt smelting factory directory and industry data)
  • USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 — Cobalt (U.S. Geological Survey, 2025)
  • USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2024 — Cobalt (U.S. Geological Survey, 2024)
  • Cobalt Institute: Cobalt Market Report 2023 (published May 2024)
  • Cobalt Institute: Cobalt Market Report 2024 (published May 2025)
  • IEA: Global EV Outlook 2023 — Trends in Batteries (International Energy Agency)
  • CMOC Group: Full Year 2024 Annual Results (corporate announcement)
  • Glencore: Full Year 2024 Production Report (corporate announcement)
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights: DRC cobalt export suspension coverage
  • Fastmarkets: DRC cobalt export ban market impact analysis
  • Carbon Credits: Cobalt Crash — Why Prices Hit a 7-Year Low
  • Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd.: 2022 Annual Report (CNINFO disclosure)