In November 2022, China's spot battery-grade lithium carbonate price hit a historic peak of RMB 600,000 per tonne. Only twenty-one months later, by August 2024, it had collapsed to RMB 72,000 — an 88% drop. A year further on, in June 2026, the price hovers around RMB 100,000, and the market has come to call the earlier surge "the cresting wave of the white-oil bubble." Those who survived the turbulence are concentrated overwhelmingly in China — the extreme low-cost Qarhan brine in Qinghai (RMB 36,000/t), the environmental clean-up of lepidolite mines in Yichun Jiangxi, the unprecedented entry of central state-owned enterprises into Sichuan Yajiang spodumene, and the cross-time-zone scramble for offshore lithium across Argentina, Zimbabwe, Chile, and Australia.

2025 was the first relatively stable year after the great industry shock. China produced about 780 kt LCE of lithium carbonate and 360 kt of lithium hydroxide, together over 60% of global lithium-salt supply. China's lithium battery output reached around 1,300 GWh, consuming nearly 950 kt of lithium carbonate, with the gap met by spodumene concentrate and brine product imports from Australia, Brazil, Zimbabwe, and Argentina. Globally, 2025 still saw a surplus of roughly 150 kt LCE, narrowing from over 300 kt in 2024, with 2026 expected to tighten further to about 70 kt.

This report uses "lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, spodumene, salt-lake brine" as the midstream backbone, and threads upstream mine-rights contests, midstream process divergence, downstream integration, price cycles and capacity clearing, offshore resource scrambles, plus policy and risks into fourteen chapters. It complements earlier published research on China's power batteries, lithium battery materials, and non-ferrous metals, but focuses more sharply on "white oil" itself — the bone-thin, resource-attribute-rich segment from rock to lithium salt.

I Industry Overview: Global and China in 2025

In 2025 global lithium supply (in lithium-carbonate-equivalent or LCE) was about 1.45 Mt against demand of about 1.30 Mt — surplus around 150 kt. The surplus distributes unevenly: low-cost brine product shipments are tight, while high-cost lepidolite and high-Mg/Li brine product piles up in warehouses. China's role has fundamentally shifted in three years. In 2022 China was the world's largest lithium consumer but only the third-largest producer (after Australia and Chile); by 2025, China is not only over half of global consumption but its lithium-salt production capacity exceeds Australia + Chile output combined. The key driver: Chinese capital's offshore mine-rights buying spree, plus a whole-process leap in Qinghai and Tibet brine technology. If you isolate "Chinese-capital-controlled or stake-held" assets, China-controlled global lithium resources approach 1.1 Mt LCE — exceeding any single country's domestic production.

Lithium-salt price trends in 2025 were "bottom-bounce, oscillating upward." Battery-grade lithium carbonate domestic spot averaged about RMB 85,000/t for the year. The industrial-grade vs battery-grade gap narrowed to RMB 4,000-5,000/t, a sign that midstream quality has homogenized and downstream cathode buyers have moderated their "over-spec" demand. SC6 spodumene concentrate CIF China averaged USD 825/t in 2025, rebounding to USD 1,050/t by June 2026. The 2026 global supply-demand outlook from BNEF: supply 1.65 Mt LCE, demand 1.58 Mt, surplus narrowing to 70 kt — meaning any supply-side disturbance could tip the market into momentary tightness.

For practitioners seeking to map every node of China's lithium-carbonate supply chain — from mines to salt plants, to cathodes, to battery plants — the research institute's factory database (covering 4.8 million in-production factories in China, distinct from commercial registry tools by triple validation through environmental permits, equipment lists, and supply-chain transaction records) lets you cross-filter by process route, capacity scale, and industrial belt.

II Upstream Resources: Spodumene and Brine, the Two Main Lines

Lithium's natural forms split into three classes: hard-rock (spodumene, lepidolite, petalite, etc.), brine (high vs low Mg/Li ratio), and edge resources (oilfield brine, geothermal water). Globally about 58% of identified resources are in brine — concentrated in the South American lithium triangle (Chile, Argentina, Bolivia) and China's Qinghai-Tibet — with about 40% in hard rock (Australia, Zimbabwe, Mali, Canada, China's Sichuan and Jiangxi). But "reserves" and "production" diverge: 2025 actual production was 53% hard-rock, 42% brine, 5% lepidolite-plus, because spodumene sulfuric-acid processing is mature and stable while brine, though more abundant, is process-complex.

Australia dominates spodumene production at 620 kt LCE of the global 900 kt, with Greenbushes (Tianqi + Albemarle via IGO holding 51%, Tianqi 26.01%, Albemarle 22.99%) the sole-mine champion at 1.65 Mt of SC6 in 2025 — about 18% of global lithium resources from a single mine. Greenbushes' edge: extreme grade (Li2O 2.0% average), FOB cash cost around USD 220/t SC6 (lowest globally), and stable supply from the JV structure. Pilbara Minerals shipped 630 kt SC6 in fiscal 2025 with AUD 1.6 bn revenue. African newcomers (Zimbabwe Bikita 74% by Sinomine, Arcadia by Huayou, Sabi Star by Shengxin Lithium, Mali Goulamina by Ganfeng+Leo Lithium) added the most marginal supply over two years.

The South American lithium triangle holds 58% of identified global lithium resources but only 38% of actual production. Chile's Atacama is the world's best brine — 1,500 mg/L lithium, 6:1 Mg/Li — but Chile's National Lithium Strategy (2024 signed, 2025 implemented) requires SQM and Albemarle to gradually merge with state-owned Codelco, with SQM stake dropping from 100% to 49%. Tianqi, holding 22.16% of SQM, sees its indirect Atacama interest cut roughly in half. Argentina under Milei's RIGI Act (December 2024) offers 30-year tax stability and free capital outflow, attracting massive Chinese capital — by mid-2026, Chinese-capital lithium claims in Argentina total about 6 Mt LCE by stake-weighted capacity, growing to 18 Mt by 2028.

III Process Routes: Sulfate, Adsorption, Membrane, Electrodialysis, Lepidolite Roasting

Process divergence at the resource end is what outsiders miss but most defines competitive landscape. Spodumene sulfate process — calcination (850-1050°C crystal transformation), sulfate maturation (200°C), water leaching, purification, precipitation — requires about 8 t SC6 concentrate, 4.5 t sulfuric acid, 1.4 t sodium carbonate per tonne of lithium carbonate. Full cost: Australia-mine route RMB 85,000-90,000/t, Africa-mine route RMB 70,000-75,000/t, China-domestic route RMB 65,000-70,000/t.

Adsorption process is China's brine breakthrough. Sunresin (Lanxiao Tech) lithium-ion-sieve adsorbents (titanium or manganese based) selectively capture lithium in high-Mg/Li brine, achieving 85%+ recovery, only 500-700 kWh/t electricity consumption. Qarhan brine (Salt Lake Industry, Tibet Mineral, Zhongmin) full cost reaches RMB 35,000-45,000/t — globally lowest. Membrane methods (Jiuwu Hi-tech nanofiltration) and electrodialysis (Tsinghua-Lite Clean Source) serve specialized brine compositions. Lepidolite roasting (Yichun Jiangxi cluster) is the world's only large-scale lepidolite-to-lithium operation but suffers from high consumable ratios (25-30 t lepidolite per t lithium carbonate), large tailings, and fluorine pollution. September 2025 Yichun environmental cleanup forced about 35% of lepidolite capacity offline temporarily.

IV Major Players: Eight Chinese Leaders Plus Three Overseas Giants

China's eight leaders by 2025 lithium-salt output: Ganfeng (115 kt LCE, revenue RMB 17.8 bn, net loss RMB 1.96 bn; core moat — comprehensive offshore mine-rights from Argentina Cauchari-Olaroz 46.7%, Mariana 100%, Mt Marion 50%, Goulamina 50%); Tianqi (revenue RMB 13.2 bn, net loss RMB 2.34 bn, core asset Greenbushes 26.01% direct + indirect via IGO); Salt Lake Industry (revenue RMB 16.8 bn, net profit RMB 4.1 bn, lithium business profit RMB 2.7 bn — Qarhan capacity 40 kt at RMB 36,000/t full cost); Zangge Mining (revenue RMB 8.8 bn, net profit RMB 3.2 bn — Zijin Mining took control in 2024 Q3 at 24.82% stake); Sinomine Resources (Bikita Zimbabwe 74%); Yahua Group (Tesla hydroxide long-term supplier, 30 kt 2026-2028 contract renewed); Yongxing Materials (Yichun lepidolite); Shengxin Lithium (Zimbabwe Sabi Star). Sunresin Tech leads adsorbent supply globally.

Overseas comparisons: Albemarle 2025 revenue USD 7.2 bn, lithium USD 4.2 bn, shipments 280 kt LCE — Q1 2026 net profit turned positive; SQM 2025 revenue USD 4.6 bn, lithium USD 2.8 bn, shipments 200 kt LCE — biggest 2025 event was Codelco JV; Pilbara Minerals fiscal 2025 revenue AUD 1.6 bn, SC6 shipments 630 kt — pure upstream player, no integration downward.

V Offshore Mine-Rights Scramble: China-Capital Global Map

2025 was the "saturation year" of Chinese capital's offshore lithium mine-rights scramble. In South America, Chile's national lithium strategy effectively closes the door to new mine-rights for non-state actors. Argentina becomes the largest Chinese opportunity — by mid-2026, Chinese capital in Argentina includes Ganfeng's Cauchari-Olaroz 46.7%, Mariana 100%, Pozuelos/Pastos Grandes 100% reserve; Zijin's 3Q salt lake 100%; Sunresin-Eramet Centenario partnership; plus Zijin+Gotion Salar de Pozuelos northern exploration. Combined Chinese-capital Argentina capacity (stake-weighted) was about 60 kt LCE in 2025, projected to reach 100 kt in 2026 and over 180 kt by 2028.

Australia favors UK-US capital but China-capital footholds include Tianqi Greenbushes 26.01% + IGO indirect, Ganfeng Mt Marion 50%, Ganfeng Pilbara Minerals 5.7%, and ongoing Zijin-Pilbara controlling-stake talks. Africa is the most aggressive Chinese expansion zone — Zimbabwe is core, with Sinomine Bikita 74%, Huayou Arcadia 100%, Shengxin Sabi Star 100%, BYD Sandawana, Gotion Kamativi. Zimbabwe's April 2024 lithium export ban (later modified) forced rapid local roasting+flotation buildout. North America is largely closed by IRA — Chinese capital pivots to Canada (Sinomine Tanco 100%, Ganfeng-Sayona Quebec).

VI Brine Extraction Technology Deep-Dive: Zangge, Minmetals, Sunresin Three Routes

Brine extraction is China's most distinctive lithium frontier and the most rapidly advancing process category over the past decade. Zangge's "adsorption+membrane" combination at Qarhan and Mamicuo recovers 78% from 1,800:1 Mg/Li ratio brine. Mamicuo (Tibet Ali, 4,500m altitude) uses "fully enclosed adsorption tower + electric-heated brine" — power consumption 30% higher than Qarhan but offset by 0.18 RMB/kWh local hydropower, full cost RMB 45,000/t. Minmetals Yiliping uses "solar evaporation pond + adsorption + refining" three-stage steady-state process, capacity 30 kt LCE, 2025 actual 28 kt. Sunresin's adsorbent generations span ADS-1 manganese-based (75% recovery, 2015) to upcoming ADS-11 integrated columns (88%, 3-year life, 2027 commercial). Sunresin's 2026 Q3 self-operated Argentina Salar de Pozuelos pilot (2.5 kt LCE) marks transition from "selling tech" to "owning brine."

VII Factory Database Perspective: Filter Cathodes, Salts, and Downstream Batteries by Process

Lithium carbonate's midstream position means any salt producer's fate depends on upstream stability (concentrate or brine sourcing) and downstream lock-in (battery-plant offtake). Precise factory mapping along the chain is essential for upstream sales reps, procurement engineers, and supply-chain investors. The research institute's factory database — the Tianxia Gongchang platform — covers 4.8 million in-production Chinese factories. This is distinct from commercial-registry aggregation products: Tianxia Gongchang's main database undergoes triple cross-validation (environmental permits + safety/energy evaluation reports issued by authorities; equipment lists + production-line photos + technical process records; supply-chain upstream/downstream transaction records). Every factory in the database is confirmed to be actively producing.

Four layers of mapping are possible: upstream concentrate and brine equipment-and-consumable suppliers (calciners, sulfuric acid, sodium carbonate, ore crushers, flotation reagents, adsorbents, nanofiltration membranes, electrodialysis units, brine pre-treatment, evaporation pond engineering); midstream lithium carbonate and hydroxide production bases for the eight leaders across a dozen domestic bases; downstream cathode plants (about 80 LFP, 35 NCM, 12 LMFP makers with scale capacity); battery plants and end applications (about 30 power-battery makers above 1 GWh, 60 energy-storage cell makers, plus consumer and specialty cells). Cross-filtering across these four layers in one platform lets users answer "how many factories nationwide produce X grade lithium carbonate; what are their capacities; whose upstream concentrate; whose downstream cells; how far from my city" — questions traditional industry name-lists cannot resolve.

VIII Price Collapse and Capacity Clearing: Through the White-Oil Bubble

November 2022 to August 2024 was the most severe price swing in China lithium history. 2021-2022's supply-demand mismatch — China EV sales surging from 1.37 m (2020) to 3.52 m (2021) to 6.89 m (2022), against pandemic-delayed supply ramp — drove lithium carbonate from RMB 50,000/t (late 2020) to RMB 600,000/t (Nov 2022), a 12x annual surge. This sparked an "arms race": China alone announced over 2 Mt new lithium-salt capacity in 2022-2023, with Australian and A-share lithium stocks averaging 5x annual gains.

The reversal began in H2 2023. EV growth decelerated from +110% (2022) to +37% (2023) to +25% (2024). Downstream battery plants destocked aggressively. April 2023 carbonate broke 300,000; October broke 200,000; December broke 100,000; August 2024 bottomed at 72,000. The clearing was brutal: Australian Bald Hill, Cattlin, Finniss closed; Yichun lepidolite cluster averaged -32% output in 2024; A-share lithium stocks averaged -56% (2024); North American projects delayed 12-24 months; cathode plants chained into losses. 2025 entered the new equilibrium — low-cost brine (Qarhan RMB 36,000/t) and quality spodumene (Greenbushes USD 220/t SC6) survived, prices oscillated in RMB 75,000-95,000/t.

IX Capacity Expansion: Tianqi, Ganfeng, Salt Lake, Zangge in 2026

This expansion wave focuses on low-cost resources and downstream integration, unlike 2022-2023's full-spectrum charge. Tianqi Chongqing Tongliang 50 kt hydroxide H2 2026 (configured for Greenbushes concentrate, dual fluidized-bed calcining + sodium sulfate co-recovery, 18% energy savings). Ganfeng Yichun lepidolite phase 2 50 kt online November 2025, achieving industry-best 88% tailings utilization plus LiF byproduct line (4-5 bn RMB annual profit contribution). Salt Lake Qarhan phase 2 40 kt Q4 2026 at projected RMB 32,000/t full cost. Zangge Mamicuo phase 2 30 kt partly pulled forward to Q4 2026. Zijin Argentina 3Q phase 2 40 kt Q3 2026. China 2026 new capacity 180-220 kt LCE; 2027 another 150 kt.

X Export and Integration: Midstream-Downstream Binding

The "spot market + quarterly contracts" model is yielding to "annual strategic agreements + equity lock-in + full-cycle pricing." CALB+Salt Lake Industry built 5 GWh storage cells at Golmud with 4,000 t/year carbonate captive supply. BYD via Lanke Lithium (49%) locks 15,000 t/year — 12.5% of BYD's 2025 carbonate consumption. Ganfeng's captive battery plants (Chongqing + Xinyu, combined 30 GWh) provide internal export. Tianqi+LG Energy Solution signed 240,000 t hydroxide for 2026-2030 (largest single Chinese overseas long-term agreement). Yahua+Tesla renewed 300,000 t for 2026-2028. Albemarle and SQM client structures center on Korean, US, EU battery makers, with SQM-CATL maintaining a small 15,000 t/year line.

XI Policy: Domestic Standards and Offshore Resource Nationalism

Domestically, MIIT September 2024 lithium-ion battery industry standard caps new carbonate energy use at 8.5 GJ/t LCE. March 2025 first auction of Sichuan Jiaika spodumene reserve to a central-SOE consortium (Chinalco, Minmetals, Baowu) signals state-team entry. November 2025 Jiangxi Yichun lepidolite environmental upgrade mandates 80%+ fluorine-bearing tailings utilization. 2026 EV subsidy fully removed, swapped for halved purchase tax. State Council December 2025 Critical Minerals Three-Year Plan targets 80% lithium self-sufficiency (domestic + offshore controlled equity) by 2028.

Overseas, Chile's 2024 national lithium strategy effectively transfers Atacama control to Codelco; Argentina's RIGI Act offers favorable foreign-capital terms; Mexico nationalized lithium in 2023; US IRA 2025 revision excludes 25%+ FEOC-stake mineral resources from credits; EU CBAM mandates battery carbon-footprint disclosure 2026, surcharges from 2028, structurally favoring brine lithium. Zimbabwe's April 2024 export ban (modified) made local processing infrastructure mandatory. Resource nationalism is reshaping global supply chains from "free market + free movement" to "state strategy + local processing + sovereign capital."

XII Research Institute Judgment: Carbonate's 2026-2030 Structural Path

Supply forms three tiers: lowest-cost (Qarhan brine + Greenbushes spodumene combined 350 kt at RMB 30,000-45,000/t) as cash-cost floor; medium-cost (quality Australia, Argentina brine, Tibet new brine combined 800-900 kt at RMB 45,000-70,000/t) as market-pricing main body; high-cost edge assets (Yichun lepidolite, Sichuan spodumene, Africa secondary, North America recycling combined 500-600 kt at RMB 70,000-100,000/t) as marginal balancer. Long-term price center stabilizes in RMB 80,000-130,000/t range.

Demand structure: storage is the biggest variable, expected to rise from 23% of China lithium-salt consumption in 2025 to 38-42% by 2030. EV demand growth decelerates from +28% (2020-2024) to +12% (2025-2030). Data center UPS lithium-ization adds 120 kt LCE through 2030. Eight Chinese leaders' market share rises from 62% (2025) to 75-80% (2030). Chinese capital's offshore equity rises from 180 kt LCE (2025) to 500-600 kt (2030), exceeding 30% of global supply.

XIII Risks: Demand Slowdown, Offshore Disruptions, Tech Substitution

EU EV sales +6% in 2025 (vs +35% in 2023), US -3%. China deceleration from +30% (2025) to +12-15% (2026-2028). Argentina brine workers' August 2025 six-week strike cost Ganfeng 2,200 t output. Zimbabwe policy reversal risk persists. Chile's strategy may extend to newly-discovered northern salt lakes. Argentina's RIGI depends on Milei staying in office (next election 2027).

Sodium-ion: CATL's second-gen 165 Wh/kg launches 2026, primarily for A00 EVs and storage, projected 12-18% combined market share by 2030 (vs lithium), representing 80-120 kt LCE substitution. Solid-state: 2028-2030 ramp with lithium-metal anodes raising LCE demand 30-50% per GWh. Recycling: 2030 Chinese recycled lithium 80-120 kt LCE, pressuring high-cost primary supply. Geopolitical: red-sea route disruption added ~40 USD/t shipping; Taiwan strait scenarios remain tail risk.

XIV Data Sources

USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026; BNEF Lithium Market Outlook 2026 H1; IEA Critical Minerals Outlook 2026; Chinese MIIT, Ministry of Natural Resources, Customs monthly data; SMM monthly reports; Ganfeng, Tianqi, Salt Lake, Zangge, Sinomine, Yahua, Yongxing, Sunresin, Zijin 2025 annual reports; Albemarle Q1 2026 earnings, SQM 2025 annual, Pilbara Minerals fiscal 2025 annual; Reuters, Bloomberg, Financial Times, S&P Platts, Nikkei Asia 2025-2026; True Lithium Research, ICCSino, Gaogong Lithium, SPIR 2025-2026 reports. Field factory data — Tianxia Gongchang main database covers 4.8 million in-production Chinese factories, source of every chain-mapping reference above. All RMB prices per tonne unless otherwise noted; LCE equivalent applied to capacity figures; cutoff date June 30, 2026.